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That's the hard truth that appears in the 2009 issue of the United States Geological Service annual commodity survey for phosphorus.

It's printed in every issue in the same place in that dry official document, but now it seems to take on a special significance - in the last few years some analysts have claimed production of phosphorus has already peaked, and demand is rising continuously.

This triggered an international panic – China placed a 100 per cent tariff on its phosphorus exports, and rocketing fertiliser prices triggered demonstrations and a fatal stampede in India.

The price of phosphate has returned to 'only' around 3 times the 2005 level, but the spike signals how unpredictable the price of phosphorus inputs will be. It's clear that phosphate rock is politically sensitive, radioactive, overused and, most worryingly, becoming scarce.

He found that phosphate production has already peaked.Increasing the availability of phosphorus is a key technique used by farmers of all persuasions in order to improve their yields.In the last 100 years, world agriculture has developed an increasing dependence on mineral phosphate fertilisers – a suite of compounds produced exclusively from phosphate rock.Extracted from phosphate rock mined from Morocco to Florida, phosphorus has been spread on farmers' fields to the tune of 1 billion tonnes of pure phosphorus since 1950.Until now, the main concerns about phosphorus production were how to manage the toxic and radioactive byproducts of phosphate mining and reducing what ecologists call eutrophication – the toxic growth of algae when excess phosphorus spreads from the land into watercourses.

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